Enacademic πŸŽ“Analogindex
49 subscribers
77.3K photos
5 videos
249K links
Download Telegram
*Stock Market Today: Stocks extend run as markets see Fed rate cuts on the horizion*

U.S. equity futures edged higher Monday, following on the from the best week for the S&P 500 benchmark since November of last year, as investors pulled rate cut bets forward into early spring following a muted jobs report dovish Fed signaling. Last week's rally, sparked by the Fed's rate decision on November 1, has not only triggered a big pullback in Treasury bond yields, loping some 25 basis points from 2-year notes, but also a notable retreat for the U.S. dollar as investors pared bets on further Fed rate hikes and began looking for the central bank to ease its policy stance in the early spring. That move was also tied to Friday's employment report, which showed a fewer-than-expected 1500,00 new jobs were added to the economy last month, the the headline unemployment rate rising to 3.9%, the highest level of the year. The combination of slowing jobs growth, solid third earnings prospects and an economy that is still showing resilient health, investors are betting on both a near-term soft landing with the prosect of policy easing over the mid-term. The CME Group's FedWatch, in fact, is pricing in a Fed rate cut as early as May, with the odds of a hike over the next four meetings given no better than a 16% chance. The softer rate forecasts have pulled benchmark 2-year notes lower from last week's levels, to 4.88%, while 10-year notes were last seen trading at 4.589% heading into the New York session.Related: Jobs report shows marked slowdown; jobless rate highest since January The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, fell a further 0.1% overnight to trade at a mid-September low of 104.925. On Wall Street, with stocks heading into a week relatively bereft of heading risks, futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 are indicating a modest 9 point gain to add to last week's 5.8% advance while those linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are likely to rise around 37 points. The tech-focused Nasdaq, which surged more than 6.6% last week thanks to the sharp pullback in Treasury yields, is expected to add around 42 points at the start of trading on Monday. In overseas markets, European stocks were largely flat from Friday's close following the best weekly gain since March, with discount carrier Ryan Air the standout performer following its record profit forecast and dividend return. Overnight in Asia, South Korea's decision to re-impose a ban short-selling ahead of the country's national elections added fuel to the region's follow-on rally from Wall Street, with the Kospi in Seoul rising the most since March of 2020. The move helped the region-wide MSCI Asia-ex Japan index to a 2.2% gain heading into the close of trading, while the Nikkei 225 ended the session 2.37% higher in Tokyo following Friday's Culture Day holiday closure. Get exclusive access to portfolio managers and their proven investing strategies with Real Money Pro. Get started now.
[Read more...](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/stock-market-today-stocks-extend-run-as-markets-bet-on-fed-rate-cuts)
Stock Market Today: Stocks extend run as markets see Fed rate cuts on the horizion

U.S. equity futures edged higher Monday, following on the from the best week for the S&P 500 benchmark since November of last year, as investors pulled rate cut bets forward into early spring following a muted jobs report dovish Fed signaling. Last week's rally, sparked by the Fed's rate decision on November 1, has not only triggered a big pullback in Treasury bond yields, loping some 25 basis points from 2-year notes, but also a notable retreat for the U.S. dollar as investors pared bets on further Fed rate hikes and began looking for the central bank to ease its policy stance in the early spring. That move was also tied to Friday's employment report, which showed a fewer-than-expected 1500,00 new jobs were added to the economy last month, the the headline unemployment rate rising to 3.9%, the highest level of the year. The combination of slowing jobs growth, solid third earnings prospects and an economy that is still showing resilient health, investors are betting on both a near-term soft landing with the prosect of policy easing over the mid-term. The CME Group's FedWatch, in fact, is pricing in a Fed rate cut as early as May, with the odds of a hike over the next four meetings given no better than a 16% chance. The softer rate forecasts have pulled benchmark 2-year notes lower from last week's levels, to 4.88%, while 10-year notes were last seen trading at 4.589% heading into the New York session.Related: Jobs report shows marked slowdown; jobless rate highest since January The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, fell a further 0.1% overnight to trade at a mid-September low of 104.925. On Wall Street, with stocks heading into a week relatively bereft of heading risks, futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 are indicating a modest 9 point gain to add to last week's 5.8% advance while those linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are likely to rise around 37 points. The tech-focused Nasdaq, which surged more than 6.6% last week thanks to the sharp pullback in Treasury yields, is expected to add around 42 points at the start of trading on Monday. In overseas markets, European stocks were largely flat from Friday's close following the best weekly gain since March, with discount carrier Ryan Air the standout performer following its record profit forecast and dividend return. Overnight in Asia, South Korea's decision to re-impose a ban short-selling ahead of the country's national elections added fuel to the region's follow-on rally from Wall Street, with the Kospi in Seoul rising the most since March of 2020. The move helped the region-wide MSCI Asia-ex Japan index to a 2.2% gain heading into the close of trading, while the Nikkei 225 ended the session 2.37% higher in Tokyo following Friday's Culture Day holiday closure. Get exclusive access to portfolio managers and their proven investing strategies with Real Money Pro. Get started now.
Read more...
*Fed Chair Powell leads parade of speakers this week as markets test dovish rate message*

Wall Street will look to hold onto the best rally of the year this week as investors face a five-day run bereft of headline risks put packed appearances from with Federal Reserve officials that could challenge the market's consensus that global interest rates have peaked. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to the Division of Research and Statistics' centennial conference before the market opens on Wednesday, highlight a busy calendar of central bank speakers that could either confirm or test the market's dovish interpretation of last week's policy meeting. Powell is also slated to speak at the Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference at 2:00 pm eastern time Thursday. The Fed held its key rate unchanged for a second consecutive month, at between 5.25% and 5.5%, but hinted that near-term inflation risks were balanced, and noted a modestly cooling job market and the impact of its prior hikes on the world's biggest economy.Related: Fed holds rates steady, hints at more increases but markets see end of hiking cycle That has investors betting on a springtime cut from the Fed, although Powell told reporters last Wednesday that he and his colleagues on the Open Markets Committee did not discuss that topic over their two-day meeting in Washington. Markets will hear from Fed Governors Lisa Cook today, as well as Christopher Waller and Philip Jefferson Thursday, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan slated to speak Tuesday. Bond markets will also be tracked closely this week as the Treasury conducts its first round of auctions following last week's borrowing estimate, which boosted its funding schedule by $9 billion to $112 billion, in coupon-bearing sales for the quarter. The Treasury, which is tasked with providing regular and predictable funding at the least possible cost to taxpayers, said it will conduct auctions of $48 billion for 3-year notes, the first of which will come Tuesday, $40 billion for 10-year notes, which start on Wednesday $24 billion in 30-year bonds, the first of which is slated for Thursday. Beyond the Fed focus, investors are also looking at a modest calendar of corporate earnings releases this week, with only 50 S&P 500 companies slated to report September quarter updates over the next five days, including Disney DIS, Occidental Petroleum OXY, Warner Bros Discovery WBD, and Uber Technologies UBER. The third quarter earnings season, however, has been largely a pleasant surprise, outside of muted near-term forecasts from mega-cap tech stocks such as Apple AAPL, with collective S&P 500 profits now forecast to rise 5.7% from last year to $483.6 billion. With around four-fifths of the benchmark reporting so far, 81.6% have topped Street earnings forecasts, a pace that's well ahead of the 73.6% pace over the prior four quarters and the long-term average of around 66.5%. Profits are set to rise by around 7% from last year's levels over the three months ending in December, as well, to a share-weighted $465 billion, according to LSEG data.Get exclusive access to portfolio managers and their proven investing strategies with Real Money Pro. Get started now.
[Read more...](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/fed-chair-powell-leads-parade-of-speakers-this-week-as-markets-test-dovish-rate-message)
Fed Chair Powell leads parade of speakers this week as markets test dovish rate message

Wall Street will look to hold onto the best rally of the year this week as investors face a five-day run bereft of headline risks put packed appearances from with Federal Reserve officials that could challenge the market's consensus that global interest rates have peaked. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to the Division of Research and Statistics' centennial conference before the market opens on Wednesday, highlight a busy calendar of central bank speakers that could either confirm or test the market's dovish interpretation of last week's policy meeting. Powell is also slated to speak at the Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference at 2:00 pm eastern time Thursday. The Fed held its key rate unchanged for a second consecutive month, at between 5.25% and 5.5%, but hinted that near-term inflation risks were balanced, and noted a modestly cooling job market and the impact of its prior hikes on the world's biggest economy.Related: Fed holds rates steady, hints at more increases but markets see end of hiking cycle That has investors betting on a springtime cut from the Fed, although Powell told reporters last Wednesday that he and his colleagues on the Open Markets Committee did not discuss that topic over their two-day meeting in Washington. Markets will hear from Fed Governors Lisa Cook today, as well as Christopher Waller and Philip Jefferson Thursday, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan slated to speak Tuesday. Bond markets will also be tracked closely this week as the Treasury conducts its first round of auctions following last week's borrowing estimate, which boosted its funding schedule by $9 billion to $112 billion, in coupon-bearing sales for the quarter. The Treasury, which is tasked with providing regular and predictable funding at the least possible cost to taxpayers, said it will conduct auctions of $48 billion for 3-year notes, the first of which will come Tuesday, $40 billion for 10-year notes, which start on Wednesday $24 billion in 30-year bonds, the first of which is slated for Thursday. Beyond the Fed focus, investors are also looking at a modest calendar of corporate earnings releases this week, with only 50 S&P 500 companies slated to report September quarter updates over the next five days, including Disney DIS, Occidental Petroleum OXY, Warner Bros Discovery WBD, and Uber Technologies UBER. The third quarter earnings season, however, has been largely a pleasant surprise, outside of muted near-term forecasts from mega-cap tech stocks such as Apple AAPL, with collective S&P 500 profits now forecast to rise 5.7% from last year to $483.6 billion. With around four-fifths of the benchmark reporting so far, 81.6% have topped Street earnings forecasts, a pace that's well ahead of the 73.6% pace over the prior four quarters and the long-term average of around 66.5%. Profits are set to rise by around 7% from last year's levels over the three months ending in December, as well, to a share-weighted $465 billion, according to LSEG data.Get exclusive access to portfolio managers and their proven investing strategies with Real Money Pro. Get started now.
Read more...